The first set of deranged people along the bush paths and narrow streets of igbo-land were madmen… and women. Their features were peculiar and certain: unkempt hair, birthday suites or tattered attires, generally reprehensible appearance, discussing with themselves, smiling at or with unseen folks, dancing to music which nobody else heard and changing their steps as the spirit directed, from slow to fast to ‘fast-fast’!. They were very few in number and Ohamasi, the one I knew when I was a primary school pupil at St Anthony’s Catholic Primary School, Osumenyi, was quite intelligent. At a ceremony one day, somebody asked him whether he would eat rice and he responded: oju;, ojuo Ohamasi na oga-eli rice (Can you imagine somebody in his right senses asking Ohamasi if he would eat rice!). He believed that the answer was so obvious that no sensible person should ask him such a question. However, he was not the only sensible madman. During a campaign trail in 2022, Peter Obi(the P O that you know), said that the best advice he got on how to manage crime in Upper Iweka (the crime HQ of ana-Igbo as at that time), was from a MAD man! You can obtain the full details from PO, but there was one particular, remarkable mad man hanging around under Upper- Iweka Flyover , whom I believed gave him that invaluable advice. If you doubt this, you can take the GTC option( GTC? Go to COURT!).
Much
later, we had beggars. There were no
beggars in the streets of Igbo-land when I was growing up. Eventually, the Biafran war of survival turned some of
nd’Igbo into beggars, but it was a temporary and situational phenomenon . And then, we had an influx of beggars into Igbo land . Today, there are native and
‘foreign’ beggars in Igbo-land and our people believe that this development evidences that the Igbo society has sunk to the nadir and surrendered their natural sense of shame
quotient to market forces. But that is
not the issue. The issue is that the beggars have a good number of features in common with the mad folks and very often,
you cannot differentiate the two
categories . Along the line, we had some mechanics who shared the same
physical appearance with mad people, especially their dressings. It got so bad
that our people invented a saying that
mechanics have made it very difficult for us to
know those who are really mad( because they look alike). As time
went on, some of our young ones started resembling mad people in the name of
fashion: disheveled hair, torn clothes, sagged trousers and speaking to
themselves. Nothing evidences their ‘maddity’
as when they wear earphone ( or other
more recent gadgets), put their phones in their pockets and keep on talking, shouting or gesticulating along the road. In any case,
there is no better sign of madness that somebody would go to the market, buy a
trouser and intentionally shred some parts of it. When the manufacturers found
that the clothes were better thorn than complete, they started making torn ones
for them. And because they made money
from that, they have extended the shredding from the legs to the buttocks
and to the tighs!
I
digressed. One man from your village said that they labeled him a mad because whenever he wanted to say a thing, something else would jump out from
his mouth! The core of my intervention
is the beggars colloquium on
the quantum leaps in the Nigerian
economy to the extent that countries like Canada, Norway, Netherlands, Holland and Rwanda are doing ‘ jelossy’ against Nigeria. Indeed, our economic resurgence is now a Guinness
Book of Records feat! This did not start in 2026. In the second quarter of 2024, our GDP
grew by3.19%,YOY, far higher than the 2.58% in the second quarter of
2023 and 2.98% in Q1.24. The
macroeconomic wonder was so celebrated that the
beggars or madmen ( because of their high similarity index) got
interested. Their begging- plates (their
main working tools)were empty; there was
no patronage, which to them evidenced weak macroeconomic fundamentals. However,
contrary to that experienced reality, the government was gloating about the strong economy as indicated by the
GDP growth. So, one of them ‘ looked’ at
the soaring GDP figures and asked his
‘business partner’ ‘is it really growing’?
The despondent partner wearily responded so I
heard! He heard but he did
not see or had not yet seen or felt it!
That was the core of the beggars’ ‘two-man colloquium’ . I have
presented the discourse of these beggars to executive students in Business
Schools across Nigeria and incidentally,
the high net-worth, sane, and sensible
operators of the Nigerian Economy, sided with the beggars: that there
was a wide margin between what they heard and what they ‘saw’ ! By the
way, how did I know what the beggars were discussing? As a spirit, it was possible for me to be
omnipresent but I heard it from Asuquo
and the Business Day( 24/11/24).
Incidentally, It was not only the
beggars that discussed this because somebody that looked like a middle-income
fellow ( he had a neatly decorated
dining table with a tablecloth and the Whiteman’s cutlery, fork-knife) wanted to have lunch but when he opened the
dish, he only saw a heap of GDP inside
it! In his mind, he was wondering: na GDP I go chop? If you doubt me, go and ask the same Asuquo and his ‘gang’, again
By
Q1’26, the economic miracle was more miraculous than the miracle of Dammam, when
Nigeria came from 4-0 down to equalize
within 30 minutes to the end of the game
and won on penalties against USSR on
February 25, 1989. That was FIFA World Youth Championship (U-20) Quarter-Final
at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam, Saudi Arabia. Incidentally, it was
not just the GDP; ALL macroeconomic indicators
were engaged in undeclared contest to positively outdo each other. And
the GDP growth figure for
Q2’26 was even more ‘progressive’
at 4.43%, YOY, the fastest pace in a decade. This put the government in
an unparalleled d ecstasy, especially as it evidences that ‘the reforms are working’
Incidentally, it is not just the GDP that is galloping furiously
and positively. This gave the CBN Governor
the chest-beating confidence to boast about our macroeconomic stability.
The stock market has grown to hitherto
unimaginable N164 trn( from N30trn in 2023), which the president sees as an
indication of economic growth and stability(7/8/26). Inflation has fallen from an all-time high of
33.24 % in 2024 to 14.63% in
September 2026. The government has saved N16trn from subsidy withdrawal
and formal remittances stood at $947m as at July, 2026, a little less than CBN
target of $1bn. Tax revenue was 27trn, after a quantum leap of 113% as at
July 2026( N12trn in 2023) while foreign
reserves at $55bn is the best in the past 18 years. NNPC has
contributed $15.3bn to FAAC within 3 years while it contributed barely $13bn in the previous 23 years,
including $0 under Buhari. Even the FAAC
allocations tell an exhilarating story as it moved from N7.85Trn in
2019. to 21.9trn in in 2025. We are also reminded of the NELFUND, which ensured
that no
student is left behind and the
2026 ASUU agreement, which was signed 17 years
after the negotiations started.
There are many more reasons to boast as
Nigeria becomes an economic Eldorado. We recorded a remarkable 50.2% surge in diaspora remittances, from $2.07bn in Jan-Jun
25 to $3,8bn in July 26; fully paid our
dues of $6.3m to the UN and its
$3.3bn budget was historically overseen by our dear Jimoh Ibrahim; and Nigeria ranks 15
amongst Africa’s most
economically free countries in 2026. The Minister of Information told us that the reforms are laying foundation for national prosperity
and that the removal of subsidy and unification of forex rates were courageous
and deliberate decisions necessary to stabilize the economy and create
opportunities sustainable
development. The Minister of Finance
authoritatively declared that the reforms prevented economic disaster,
while Okpebholo of Edo state who could not read an ordinary budget, enthused that these reforms would make
Nigeria as strong as UK and US (he forgot to add France!). APC bases its
chances of winning in 2027 on
BATs reforms and associated
performance while the loquacious Nwike asked
the opposition not to lose sight
of BATs performances. Another evidence
is that the Bank of Industry disbursed N664bn
( the highest amount ever) to 12501 businesses ( a 25% increase over 2024) and created 1.6m jobs
in 2025 Other ‘third-party’ evidences
about the impact of our reforms
include that 51 countries invested in the Dangote
IPO just as Airtel Chairman,
Sunii Bharti Mittal, hailed the
floatation of the Naira , which excited foreign investors
The FGN through
its sycophantic –spokespersons,
appointees, and sympathizers who live
in another world, are not the only ones celebrating these epochal developments. The Nigerian Economic Society (
to which I belong though I am a member
in ‘exile’) in September 2026 awarded
the CBN its Distinguished Organisation Award
in recognition of its institutional reforms and contributions to Nigerians
macroeconomic stability and development with specific reference to reforms in the forex market, clearance of long
standing Forex obligations cessation of
ways and means financing, bank recapitalization.
These figures are quite impressive and
according to BAT, who treated the matter with unpardonable levity, those who did not see
this superlative performance, needed eyeglasses, a statement reinforced
by his wife who recommended special BAT-eyeglasses . He also chided us for complaining because Economic hardship and suffering had
been with us before I came on board; it
did not begin with my administration’ However, when you examine these figures, you see some unfortunate
developments that made it difficult for the blind man to feel, or the sighted
to see, these developments and the key of these factors is the money
( quantity) illusion. I learnt
this concept from Professor Edozien at
UI in 1977. The fact is that the quantity of money is not the same thing with
the quality ( value)of money. The FAAC allocation of 2025 is far less than that
of 2019 because the N22trn in 2025($14.9bn) is ‘junior’
to the N7.8trn( $25,6bn) in 2019. And
the core factor in this dynamics is the ‘subsidy is gone’ declaration which
the president made when his was overwhelmed by unusual and strange courage-spirit in 2023. It was just the other day that the
government promised to give us an
account of the subsidy savings but the figures are estimated to N16trn.
However, the FGN has borrowed and continued to borrow within the same period, all debts characterized by indescribable opacity. Of course, the unprecedented borrowing makes nonsense of the savings. We removed subsidy so as to have money to meet our needs but our borrowings have reached an alltime high. Our debts now stand at N167trn(June 2026) as against N160trn in March, ‘26; while the Government just opened negotiations for another $1.5bn loan. The datails of these debts are unknown and because of the opacity of our financial archtecture, nobody knows where the money goes. The GDP is galloping forward while more Nigerians are living in penury and while inflation has fallen, it was mostly due to the economic necromancy of rebasing, especially as the government has assured earlier that inflation must ‘bow’ . It was like working from the answer to the question. In any case, the price of a crate of eggs is now N6000+ a kg of gas N2000 and a tankful of Corola is at 65000( depending on where you buy from), relative to N1200 and N300 and 12000 during the Buharian era. Lasisi Olagunju spent N212000 to fuel his car within 12 days and wondered ‘If merely getting to work- consumes the earnings from work, what exactly is the reason for working’? I spend about N75000 to fuel my car within five days and I started wondering if I was working-and living-for fuel. Furthermore, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has said emphatically that the falling inflation has not reduced the members’ production costs.
Two developments
that I relate well with are the NELFUND programme and the the largess
resulting from the ASUU agreement of 2026. Both developments are enviable
because, it could have been worse. But somebody
likened the NELFUND programme to
a person who pushed you into the river and then trew a life-saving
jacket at you. If you check the what school fees were by 2023 and what they are
today, you will appreciate that the
marcroeconomic environment created by the ‘reforms’ jerked up the avarage level
of school fees and the FG then offered the loans to cushion the effects of what
it had caused , for those who applied, and who will repay someday.
On the ASUU largess, I wish to rely on one Amoka, who recently gave a graphic detail.In 2005, the
net salary of an Assistant Lecturer was about ₦37,000($280), N57000 in 2006.( $445) and N110000 in 2009( $738). By
2022, the ₦110,000 was worth only about
$246 and after subsidy removal in 2023
and naira devaluation, ₦110,000 dropped to as low as $73.. By 2026,the
AL’s salary was increased to roughly
₦250,000, which is $180. A professor
under PMB earned N419,000 (419? about $900+), which crashed to $277 in 2023 and raised to N1m( $750) in 2026, which is still
significantly less than 2023 levels. I
don’t know whether to ‘laff’ or to cry .( Read Nigerian University Lecturers and the
Self-Normalisation of Poverty)
The chest-beating about our national prosperity was raised to the ‘nth’ level by the president during his 2026 ‘independence’ speech as he gloated that our economy had grown by more than 4%, oil theft was down, inflation had fallen substantially, our reserves have been rebuilt, our forex market stabilized and that the country recorded the highest revenue from non-oil export, exceeding $6bn’ For the first time, I agree with him as I ask: Na statistics we go chop? Na hope, macroeconomic stability, GDP figures, and Reserves, we go chop? Yet we have not seen the food he promised to put on the table! These questions are germane because in the same speech, he said, a as if he just got into power, that our priority is to bring down the cost of living by lowering the cost of production. He thus admitted that the costs of production and living are still high. Before then, he had asked us ( from France) to remain hopeful and give him more time to complete his reforms and adress the challenges facing the country. The recent 90-day emergency economic rescue package which followed the tokenistic discount on fuel prices ( after which NNPC increased fuel prices)indicate that FGN knows that the reforms are far from yielding the desired results. Ogun Sate government has also followed suit by introducing some palliatives
So, where does, the money go? Where did the ‘real money’ from non-oil export go? He also
told us that our economic anemia did not
start with him, just as he told us earlier that there had always be hunger in
the land( exposing his high insensitivity quotient) but as at 28 May 2023, I
never had to take a bank loan to fuel my car or to travel by public transport
from Ijebuode to Igbo-Ukwu. I could even do big-man and fly down,
avoiding the Benin-Asaba route, which now showcase Umahi’s famed infrastructure miracles. I
could feed my family without
destabilizing my peace of mind and the
number of formal and informal beggars were manageable. I am not hypertensive
but today anytime I need to buy
anything, especially fuel and drugs, my heart starts dancing to a music
played by market forces.
And the foundation of all this was the
subsidy is gone declaration (and there is evidence that subsidy was still being
paid for a long while in the baptismal name of cost recovery) and
incidentally, as other countries take steps to contain the cost of fuel and
diesel, we are being asked to bear the
brunt, be patient and hopeful. The latest counties that disciplined high fuel prices are Germany and Israel, with
the Israeli PM vowing that they would
ensure that fuel prices did not soar in
Israel even though they were soaring all over the world
Fuel prices are rising in Nigeria while
other countries are ‘ cutting taxes, subsidizing fuel, capping prices, releasing strategic
reserves, relaxing regulations and strong-arming oil companies’ Here is a global review on the matter On Friday, October 2,
the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from
emergency reserves to bring prices down. Ireland cut petrol taxes by 27 cents
per liter and diesel taxes by 32 cents. Spain proposed relief of up to 30 euro
cents per liter. South Korea imposed a fuel-price ceiling. Brazil has
subsidized gasoline and cut taxes. Italy leaned on major oil companies to cap
petrol and diesel prices. Kenya cut VAT on petroleum products. Yes, while the world fights costly petrol, Tinubu
defends it(Farooq Kperogi) and this is in a situation where our
income has been so ravaged by inflation
that it cannot avail much. A liter of fuel costs about the same thing in
Nigeria and US ( 1450-1550). But
while the lowest-paid American nets about $ 1,160 Monthly(N 1,543,612
Naira), his Nigerian counterpart
received the new improved wage of N70000( about $52). Thus while the yankeeman
can afford 989 litres of fuel with his
monthly salary, a Nigerian at minimum
wage can only afford 46 litres! As a
pained Nigerian lamented, we copied their fuel price, but not their salary. And
as we continue wait( somebody calls it
the economy
of WAITING), I ask, how many of us would
be alive by the time BAT completes his
‘good works’ and as Lasisi Olagunju asked ‘how long must an exausted people wait for
your morning and how many will still be standing when your promised dawn finally breaks?
I wish
to summon many witnesses who agree with
the beggars that they hear of, but do not see, the growth. The
first is the Budget and Economic Planning
Minister, who agrees that the reforms have created a cost of living
crises( Bwala & Bayo cannot admit this much) though he argues that it is esential for sustainable and inclusive
growth. Of course we all know that the
growth has been MORE exclusive than ever, with
the rich getting obsecenly richer. Business Day refers to the whole
thing as policies without the people( 13/2/26) while the Guardian
authoritatively states that the economy is growing but people are not feeling
it as standard of living tell different stories. Paul Ibe argues that
no matter how delicsious it is, Nigerians cannot eat the GDP. And
while the NES gave the CBN an award, the Charttered Institute of Bankers felt
other wise as it argued at its
last bankers conference that the
improving macroeconomic indicators will amount to little if they do not ‘touch’
the people. The knel of its
argument ia that ‘The true test iswhether sronger fundamentals translate into lower
living costs more jobs, higher real
incomes affordable credit, reliable public service and reduced poverty.
Macroeconomic progress must therefore be felt at the micro level in households,
small bsinesses and the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians. One of my
friends, Dr Idon Alabi
resurrected Billy Dudly, one of the finest academics that I had the frtune of meeting in UI( I
don’t know whether he was among those
whom IBBdescribed as teaching what they were not paid to teach) who
once stated that the key
questions are what is happening to abject
poverty, chronic umemploymentand wider income inquality He then posited that what is at play is data massaging or manioulation and that
since 2023, the Dudlian trio of employment. poverty and incolme
inequality had gone from ‘bad
to mbadamba’!
The Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise holds that ‘even though inflation had eased, prices remain significantly higher, with reform-induced shocks eroding purchasing power and businesses under higher operational costs… yet to translate sufficiently into relief for households and businesses’ and advised government to go beyond stabilization and urgently pursue productivity-driven reforms’ The Nigerian Employers Consultative Assembly agrees with CPPE, holding that The success of the reforms should be measured by improvements on citizens welfare, business operations and job creation rather than increased government revenue alone; the ultimate measure of success should be tangible benefits to Nigerians stating that rising energy and transportation costs, weak purchasing power and inadequate infrastructure place enormous pressure on enterprises, threatening sustainability, constraining expansion and placing jobs at risk
Dakuku Peterside
agrees that dificult reforms may be necessary but posits that
‘ their legitimacy depends on honest explanation, fair burdens,
protection for vulnerable households and willingness to correct mistakes and
concluded that ‘ Reform must be tested agaisnt everyday transactions’ Babafemi
Ojodu lamented that ‘ hardship has become the
defining experience of too many Nigerians… Even when some indicators are
improving. The question you must ask yourself is whether that progress can be
felt in an ordinary household. A parent
who cannot pay school feesor buy
medicine cannot live on a projection of future relief. Progress must mean food
on the table, a child in school, treatment for the sick and a reasonable chnace
to earn a living. He asked the President to reviw his policies with the
household in mind. Examine the cumulative burden of fuel prices, transport
costs, and the rising cost of basic foods
The 2026 Nigerian Financial Inclusion Report indicates
73% inclusion, more than the 70% target but only 30% is financially health, leaving 60m people
financially vulnerable or merely coping. Access to bank finace and fintech has
not improved the financial wellbeing of Nigerians
Alh Rotinwa, a
former Head of the Civil Service of the Federation argues that ‘Growth that does not reward the populace is
not an answer; Rising cost of living
created a widening gap between wages and the cost of essential goods and
services makes it necessary for government to focus on measures to improve
workers purchasing power.
Regretting that in Nigeria, a Permanent Secretary cannot afford a new
car and a used one costs N30m
and we still speak of growth
So,
where do we go from here? Lassisi Olagunju
regretted that there is prosperity in the treasury but penury in the market place and warned that we were
approaching ‘with evil irresponsibility, the
inevitable time when unless we do something, to stop it, men will be hunting
men through the ruins for food’(The
Petrol Fire on our roof. Lasisi Olagunju. Monday, 28/9/26). If
governments across the globe understand
that their citizens cannot simply be
abandoned to ferociousforces of the
market as they effect fuel, why does Nigeria argue differently? Nigeria
failed fiscal transparenccy test for two
years running, because budget does not
match reality, audit gaps exists, and te
commonness of opaque procurement
practices. And so, even when growth is high, there is no transparency to see
where the money goes. Furthermore, FG
borrowing from domestic sources rose by 90.5% YOY( August 25-26) therefore
raisng the cost of credit and squeezing
businesses out of the credit market
As another
compatriot argued Nigerians cannot easily deny the testimony of their own stomachs, pockets
and daily experiences; poverty is no a theory to the hungry, insecurity is not
a statistics to the family whose breadwinner is in the warm embrace of
kidnappers, unemplyment is not a political slogan for the graduate who is
jobless years after the celebretory signing out and inflation is not a
macroeconomic abbsrraction for the mother who can no longer afford the food she
comfortably bought 3 years ago. You cannot continually tell the people that the
economy is improving when their daily
experiences tell thenotherwise.
And another, Nigerians cannot eat GDP; they cannoit take improved trade figures to
the market and exchange them for a bag of rice, they cannot use rising
government revenue to pay their childrens school fees, they cannot cook forex
reserve for dinner and vthey cannot feed their families with the repeated
government assurances that the economy is in the right trajectory. For many
Nigerians, their economic realities remain brutally different from the picture
painted by government statistics
My
usual purpose is to draw government attention to what is not going on well. I admit that I am an ancient economist but I know that
there is a gulf of difference between growth and development, which impacts on
quality of life, education, health care,, lower inequality and inclusivity as
against increase in quantity of output. I
do not advice much because they know what is wrong and what to do.
A government that removed fuel subsidy but ignored it’s the corruption
dynamics does not need any advice. It
knows what it is doing because it knows where the dead bodies are buried. But
since people always ask: what do you
advise, I say: go beyond statistics, ignore the quantity
illusion, go for development, not growth and always remember that the people
are central to all politics and
economics. I have spoken.
By the way, with saintly Ibrahim Jimoh representing us at UN, Nwike’s son a corporate land broker at Abuja, Yahaya Bello an APC senatorial candidate, Akpabio as the #3 man in Nigeria, while Ministers purchase their appointments and recoup their investments from their budgets, the war against corruption is still RAGING as the President recently directed the judiciary to review prosecution strategies, address procedural loopholes exploited by PEPs( Politically Exposed Persons) and organized crime groups to delay or frustrate criminal trials. Furthermore, the man who assured us of 24/7 power supply has solarized his office and asked state governments to sort out our power issues!
“Find a great mentor, someone who has already been through the many challenges of being an entrepreneur..” -Jodi Levine
Entrepreneurship in Practice: Cases, Challenges and Lessons By IK, MUO PHD is now available on Amazon, since 14/5/21. Click here to view Available for order +2348033026625 | Delivery: Worldwide
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