· I appologise upfront for the lenghty nature of this OILY discourse but it will be worth your while!
Arguments between officials at Dangote Refinery, Oil Marketers
and the regulators are batted back and forth in the media. All sides have been
accused of hiding some facts and figures which leaves people guesing what is
going on inside this somewhat opaque industry. Will Ross, BBC
African Regional Editor 18/11/24( Who
wins when when Nigeria’s richest man
takes on the oil Mafia)
I knew that there would be a fight but I did
not know that the mafia in oil is stronger than the mafia in drugs-Dangote
When something is OILY, it is slimy, slippery, easy to swallow, difficult to grasp and used to compound other elements. When something is OILED, it has been coated with oil and consequently, it is smooth, frictionless, lubricated, and free-flowing. I want to start this intervention with a wager. I have never betted before. Even the small raffle-draw where the prize was a cock or a tubber of yam that used to be common in the village in those days did not appeal to me. However today, I feel ‘betty’. I am willing to offer my certificates from Nigerias finest universities (University of Ibadan, Ahmadu Bello University and University of Lagos) to anyone who can explain to me in a KISS-model, the happenings in our oil industry, where NNPC, which is now a private limited company, regulates other private companies, makes policy statements on behalf of the government and is both a regulator and an operator. It is just like the Central Bank of Nigeria operating CBN Commercial BankLtd! For a long while, the key feature of our NNPC-regulated oil industry was (and is still), it’s extreme opacity. However of late, it has become as complicated as our analogue telephone wires, where one cannot differentiate the in-wires that bring in the calls from the out-wires that distribute the calls. Nigeria is the only oil-producing country in the world where the oil ministry is left hanging such that the Minister is impliedly the oga at the top!!!
Some of our people have so much chopped from oil and allied matters that their mouths had become OILY and they are the sources of these OILY tales. The tales from the oil sector is oily: slippery, easy to swallow and difficult to grasp. And the consequential weried tales are told by those whose tongus have been oild; the tonhues have been lubricated with the same oil but while the tales flow freely from their tongues, the receipients find it difficult to grasp. Everything was going on normally (that is despite the oil-sector opacity and the strange scenario where one of the highest oil producers imports 101% of its fuel) when Dangote the capitalist identified the obvious opportunity and decided to exploit it. The FG, which had spent $25bn on Turn Around Maintenance of currently morribund refineries( PH & Warri refineries are now said to be working to various degrees), carried the Dangote self-imposed investment burden as if it were a public sector programme. The government was actually the one announcing when the Dangote Refinery Limited (DRL) would be ready, and since the days of Ibe Kachikwu, told us that once DRL opens shop, all our oil woes would be over. We waited, prayed, fasted and hoped. In any case, we had little choice. Then as the long awaited DRL was about to open shop , the OILY tales started.
The
Government, which had been promoting the DLR turned 180 degrees and became a
conscious and deliberate demarketer.
The Government, through its various oiled agents and agencies, told a bewildered nation that DRL had no
operational licence and that the quality of its products was inferior but Dangote himself asked them to
submit samples for open contest to determine who was dealing in unwholsome
products. It was then announced that contrary to what we had been made to
believe that the NNPC stake in DRL is
just 7% because the NNPC was unable to meet the financial obligations of 20%
intially agreed! But the audit of NNPC accounts for 2022 indicated that the
NNPC had paid for 20% shares in DRL! And at the Energy Relations Stakeholders Engagement,
Abuja, 16/12/24, the NNPC told us that it borrowed oil-backed $1bn in support of DRL, which was
facing liquidity crises, underscoring its dedication to
fostering public-private partnerships that drive national development. The
DRL described this statement as hogwashic
misinformation, arguing that they
would not have given NNPC generous payment terms for their proposed shareholding (5 year repayment terms) if they were
liquiditychallenged. By the way, how can a company which is indebted to the
tune of $6bn to its customers, and which could not pay for its allotted shares
be the one borrowing in support of DRL? Well, I hope I have not defamed!
However, it
became obvious even to the deaf and blind that the government which was
a promoter of DLR had inexplicably become its demoter. When Dangote found out
that the handshake had gone beyond the elbow, he opened a can of warms,
starting with the tales from Malta…
that some NNPC people have opened a blending plant somewhere off Malta from
where they brought in poor quality products with fake certificates. He did not
mention names but when you alude to
a distressed basket a skeletal
or a ragged person takes note. He
had thrown that unmentionable thing at the fan, which then scattered it everywhere
and everyone ran for cover but there is nowhere to hide. Stories also came out about how ALL efforts
by Dangote alone and in cohot with Otedola
to rescue the refineries were thwarted by government and its agents. And
the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics authoritatively reported that our imports
from Malta reached a record high of N766.81bn in the third quarter of 2024 but
did not specfy what products were imported!( are you see what I am saw?).
Anyway, when Dangote who had always appeared maleable , who usually openeth not his mouth like a lamb led
to the slaughter( Isaiah 53:7), started shaking tables, then nobody
needed to tell the blind man that fullblown war had started. Troublesome or treasonous Nigerians then went
online and descovered that the Malta Oil Business was being undertaken by Ras
Hanzir Oil Terminal Ltd and released the names of the Directors. You should go
and find out by yourselves. I don’t want to enlarge the
defamation-quotient of this intervention!
Then, the ding-dong dance, a dance more exciting than gwo-gwo-gwo- ngwo started. The Government ordered the NNPC to sell to Dangote in Naira and our people clapped because those of us not schoold in the theory and practice of international oil market believed that it would lead to a significant haircort on the price of our local lifewire, petrol. But that was not done months later because NNPC had pre-sold our oil to unknown traders and because some people were not eager to commit economic sepuku! At that time, other ‘independent refineries’ suddenly came alive and opposed the direct crude sales to local refineries, which a layman like myself believed that it would be in their interest.In anycase, even if they sold local oil to DRL, it would be at the Naira equivalent of the global oil price on the deal date. This weirid father harvested a huge quantity of yam, sold it to wholsalers, pocketed the money and asked his family to go and buy from them at market prices. In any case, Dangote had to and is probably still importing crude oil, from Brazil or wherever. NNPC then declared itself as the sole offtaker of the fuel, requested for a offices so as to have permanent representatives at DRL, fixed the prices, and did/said many unbelievable things. Remember that NNPC is a private company of its own
As
the days went bye, the oily tales became
more densely oiled, amuzing, amazing and
even awesome. For instance, contrary to
public percetion all along, Aliko Dangote, the very poor man (because he
is the only rich man in a very large community), told a bewildered nation
that the DRL was built without any support or
incentive,from Nigerian Government, that it was fully paid for and
recounted several government policies
that nearly sabotaged and stalled its takeoff. He made this weighty revelation at the Oil Refinery Owners
Association of Nigeria Summit at Lagos
on 8/10/24. Very few Nigerians believed
him. That was when one Adeola Soetan, a
member of a member of ATSoN (
Association of Table Shakers of Nigeria), revealed that Dangote paid
$100m for the expansive Dangote site but that what was declared as IGR from the
deal was$1.4m! Somebody is still trying to put off the fire . At that same Refiners Summit, the Minister of Petroleum,
Henekin Lokpobri advised the NNPC to abandon its 4 refineries (which have been
morribund for 24 years, despite heavy investments) and take greater stake
in Dangote and other refineries.
Represented by Dangana Tande, Deputy
Director, Upstream, he said: we urge the state oil company to take equity
in the other upcoming refineries rather than running refineries. Of
course, this was denied the following day, wich further oiled the discourse.
Some of our content creators( Ekpa is one of them!) now added more oil to the
tales by describing NNPC as a man with 4 full-time wives( refinerias)
frantically chasing an untested
sidechick! Another generated a
mathematical assignment from the quagmire: If Dangote complained about NNPC, NNPC
complained about Dangote, IPMAN complained abpout Dangote and People complaied
about pump price of fuel, calculate the
area of the triangle and find X!
And
then, Dangote complained that
dealers were ingnoring the 500m liters of fuel from the DRL but the
dealers asked him to prove that he had such a stock, lamenting that they spent
days at DRL to load their trucks and that after spending fortunes to load a
truck, the margin was usually a few thousands of Naira but Dangote declared
that the DRL would eliminate fuel queues , lenghten the lifetime
of our car engines, give an accurate
figure of domestic consumption and that
his fuel was 15% cheaper than NNPC’s imported fuel but his traducers countered
that his fuel was more expensive than NNPCs, that they had to have mercy on
Nigerians by seeking a cheaper source and that they would not support a monopoly situation.
IPMAN insisted that NNPC should sell to
them at DRL price or return the billions
they had as deposits, alleging that NNPC
bought below N900 and wanted to sell to them at above N1000. Even the price at which NNPC bought from Dangote was a
subject of public disputation since DRL denied the price as claimed by NNPC.
The FG then denied any culpability in the
various price increases while NNPC said that it was not influenced by
the FG to increase prices, which were
due to the dynamics of global oil
market. Incidentally. the Minister of Information and National Orientationm,
Mohammed Idris was speaking for NNPC, a private company!
And while
NNPC, IPMAN et al are aranging how to import oil into Nigeria, (oil majors
had ordered 141m liters after DL had started operations),many countries were lining up
to import fuel from DRL and Cameroon, Angola,Ghana, SouthAfrica have
actually imported from DRL. And then Dangote took some of the importers,
includig NNPC and Matrix to court, asking the court to stop their importation efforts
and suddenly the DSS got involved in the
dispute between NNPC and IPMAN while on Friday,8/11/24 the Nigerian Coalition
of Civil Society Organisations (NICOCSO) staged a protest at the National
Assembly, over the impasse between the Nigeria National Petroleum Company
Limited (NNPCL) and DRL and other challenges in the Nigerian oil sector.
However, while ALL this were going on, Gabon invited Aliko Dangote, gave him a
presitential treat and requested him to explore investment opportunities in
cement and fertilizer in their country. The inquisitive spirit in me has made
me to ask why ONLY the fuel compenent of Dangote Industries is subject to
disputation. Why are the gas, aviation fuel and fertilizer componnents moving
on in peace?
The tales took a religious dimension when the one and only GO Adeboye accused those against fuel subsidy removal as being responsible for naira devaluation, which but for his prayers would have risen to N10000/$1. He also called for prayers against those sabotaging the only working refinery in Nigeria. Meanwhile, after several false-starts, the PH refinery was said to be ready to commence operations after gulping over $1.5bn. At least the NNPC then had something to occupy its attention and so as to leave DRL alone. But like Thomas, I will not agree that PHR is operational untill I drive my car from Ijebuode to the PH and buy fuel at the NNPC depot within the complex. But the resumption or the alleged resumption of PHR after 1001 false starts, after gulping enough money to build many refineries, had become the most contentious issue in Nigeria in recent times, more contentious than the Naira-repainting exercise done by the Bible-clutchig Emefiele
Then
NNPC started Refinery Tourism, financing groups on PR visits to the PHR, including NLC and
TUC, and former Managing Directors of
NNPC all of which/whom affirmed that PHR was working. ( I did not know
that Former NNPC CEOs had a union and by
the way, what do you expect them to say?) I don’t know why NNPC has not
procured me for PHR tourism . I had insisted that I must drive to PH and buy
fuel from PHR before I would agree but I have changed my mind. However, I have
changed my mind. I am now willing to accpt ONLY the
testimony of DF… nothing more! And NNPC burnt its fingers when the invited
OBJ to come and see(John,1:39) but he lambasted
them, saying that it was disrespectful
and insulting! More tales emerged when NNPC reported that we were not seeing much
of the PHR oil because it had been exported through Gulf Oil Transport and Trading in Dubai! How can NNPC be exporting when our PMS
imports had risen to garagantuan proportions, with 2.3b litres( worth $2bn+) imported
between 11/9/24-5/12/24? Are we trying to create another ‘Malta’ ?
Our
Ministers are also a part of the oily tales, one of them being the Coordinating
Minister of the Economy who announced that the FG had saved $20bn from the REMOVAL
of oil subsidy but immediately submitted a request for $2bn+ loan, which the
NASS approved within 24 hours. How could
we have saved such an intimidating sum when it was the burden of underrecovery
that nearly sunk the NNPC. Before then, the Minister of Darkness,
sorry, power , Adebayo Adelabu who miraculously survived the last cabinet
shakup due to his wonderful performance, gleefuly enthused that
Nigerians were not complaining about the high cost of fuel because of a more
benign power supply situation. In effect he admitted that people buy fuel to satisfy their electricity needs. Long
before then, the Minister of State for Labour had declared that NNPC did not
contribute a dime to the 2024 budget and asked Nigerians to have mercy of BAT, who was also suffering the
impact of the fuel price hike. Wetin Labour Deputy Minister get to do
with NNPC and Budget?
There
are tales and still more tales and while
the Upstream Regulatory Commissionstated
stated that Nigeria daily crude
production is 1.5mbpd, the NNPC said it was 1.8m. And so, who is the defacto
or dejure regulator? NNPC or all
these commissions that are all over the place? NNPC once declared that it had
stopped importation and would buy from DRL but that was at a time it had ganged
up with other importers to commit almost $1bn for 1.5m tonnes of petrol. It was
said that DRL still bought crude oil in
Dollars while banks were structuring N3trn for importers, who had argued that
it was cheaper and more profitable to
import than to buy from DRL. NNPC eventually signed a 10 year gas deal with DRL
and IPMN sealled a direct-purchase deal with DRL but that was after Dangote
accused one company in its neighbourhood of blending or intending to blend low quality fuel, an accusation which
Peter Mbah’s Pinacle Oil denied, even though they were not mentioned. The MD of
Atlantic oil was arrested by EFCC for diverting $35m oil fund. Which one
be oil fund again?
The tales becamse more oiled when Dangote declared that he knew that there would be a fight but that he did not know that the oil mafia was more vicious and ruthless than the drug mafia. And then, one fellow just propped up from nowere to I inform us that Dangote does not OWN DRL; that it was-and is- owned by International Investment Bank Development Group( IIBG ), which has subsidiaries in 42 African countries, including DRL, where it acquired 70% stake at the cost of $19b, in july 15 2022. The same unknown analyst also claimed that NNPC would sell its 7% stake in DRL to an unknown entity going forward. Along the line, the Oando-NNPC tales took over the headlines. Sometimes ago, NNPC took over ALL Oando Stations across the country and these were appropriately rebranded. And suddenly, we heard that the NNPC transferred ownership of ALL fuel stations to Tinubu’s nephew, in a deal that involved OVH Energy Marketing, a hitherto unknown operator, which has a blood-relatiionship Oando!
The whole oily tales took another dimension when AriseTV accused NNPC& Government of sponsoring protests by protesters procured with N4000 per capita. The show was exposed because the protestants were fighting over the resource-allocation within Arise premises. And then, Vice President Kashim Shettima commissioned a new FPSO vessel awned by Oriental Energy Resources Limited in Dubai (that cost $315m) ‘ to boost Nigeria oil sector’. Those of us not versed in OILY matters wondered how a vesel in Dubai would boost the Nigerian oil sector or if they were trying to replicate Malta in Dubai? Anyway, they said that the vessel would be deployed in Okwok Oil Field in 2025. And just the other day(4/1/25) more oily tales emerged about something that ould be more miraculous that feeding thousands with 2 loaves( Mark,8:1-10)! That was when marketers projected that fuel price would soon tumble to N500/ litre
Asari Dokubo( now HRH of one oily community),
then continued his table-shaking antics by restating that soildiers were the
key players in oil theft ecosystem, reminding us that he had a presidential
permission to grant the interview when he
first made that assertion on the rocks that “The military is at the centre of oil theft…99 per cent
of oil theft can be traced to the Nigerian military, the Army and the Navy
especially.” And as NNPC was trying to boost fuel supply, one of
its truckers, Afeeze Adegbola was boldly exporting fuel for
domestic consumption, to other West Africal countries. As I was about berthing,
the Auditor General of the Federation
reported that NNPC made unauthorised withdrawl of N82.9bn for refinery
rehabilitation in the 2020/2021 year. And the bit goes on!!
As I conclude this lengthy I hope I have been
able to convince you, and not to confuse you that these tales are complicated, complex and densely
OILED. And that was why I staked my certificates for anybody who would disentangle these oil tales in a common mans
language!
NB: Somebody who
holds back the truth causes trouble but he who openly criticises works for
peace. Proverbs, 10:10
Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim told these tales in a poetic
form and here it is:
Act 1, Scene 1: "SUBSIDY IS GONE!"
Scene 2: Exchange rate unification and currency floatation
neutralized subsidy removal. Pump price became higher than landing cost with
NNPC covering the differential. SUBSIDY IS BACK!
Act 2, Scene 1: Dangote Refinery is our savior. Scene 2:
Dangote: I need Crude Oil; NNPC: We cannot give you!
Dangote: You must give us. PIA said you must leave out a portion
of Crude Oil produced for domestic supply. NNPC: We have signed
forward sales agreement. Dangote: PIA supersedes any agreement. NNPC/NMPDRC:
You are not ready. Even your diesel is substandard. And we won't allow you to
become a monopoly. Dangote: My diesel is more qualitative than
yours. I am offering you a lifeline with PMS. But no problem, I know what is
happening in Malta. NNPC: (No comments)
Act 3, Scene 1:
NNPC: We will give you Crude Oil. In fact, we will sell it to you in Naira. Dangote:
Thank you
Act 4, Scene 1:
NNPC: We are profitable. But we are in $6 billion debt. It is becoming hard
to guarantee supply. NNPC then raises pump price to N897, closer to landing
cost. NNPC: (And then suddenly) Dangote, we are going to be the
exclusive buyers of your petrol. Dangote: No Problem (Nigerians:
No problem? 🤔).
Scene 2:
Nigerians: NNPC, why are you interested in being the sole buyer
of Dangote's petrol? FG/NNPC: For pricing purposes! Nigerians:
Una wan become monopolist too? Shey you accused Dangote of such? 🤔 NNPC: No Comments! Nigerians:
Wait. How much will you now sell the petrol. 🤔NNPC: FEC will decide. Nigerians: So you want to peg price? DEREGULATION
IS GONE? 🤔NNPC: No Comments. Nigerians: Wait. How are you now going to
find money and pay your $6 billion debt? NNPC: We will find ways.
Nigerians: Jira Jira Jira (Wait Wait Wait), hope you are not
planning to peg price above what would have been the real market price and
below what it would have costed if imported to discourage import and yet still
accrue windfall? NNPC: No Comments. Nigerians: Is
that how you intend to get the money to pay your debt? NNPC: No
Comment. Nigerians: Hmm 🤔WE WATCH! 😊Sha, congratulations Dangote. You made history.
Meanwhile, as the OILY dynamics takes its toll
on the ‘masses’, people are designing new modes of transportation while drivers are OVERLOADING
their vehicles so as to cover their fuel-push costs. But according to renewed
hope appologists, ALL is well!
For DF
I wanted to write about DF and AB; how one
person was furiously pursuing vendetta
in the name of justice with
oppressive, repressive and suppressive
state structures; how one is simultaneously dragging another in courts as far as Syria and
Ukraine and yet the ‘suee’
was locked up while the ‘suer’ had a field-day in a one-sided battle… I hope I have
not defamed anybody. DF is younger, a lawyer and well known. The son of
man is an elder, unlearned and unknown. So, while DF has many people rooting
for him, shouting FREE DF( whether THEY hear or NOT) I might end up in Gashua
and Gobir or even Syria without anybody
rooting for me apart from my family. So, I borrow my self sense and shut myself
up! But, I remember that they had granted him bail 1
and bail 2; we are
awaiting other bails from other present and emerging courts! However, as a FULL
Man and a FULL Spirit, I say: COURAGE my brother; IT SHALL COME TO PASS because thus saith the Lord: They shall
fight against thee but they shall not prevail against thee because I am with
thee(Jeremiah, 1:19!!!) Anyway, DF is at home now while preparing the
second phase of the war. While he was in Ekiti dungeon, I gave him an
assignment. To confirm the truth about Ph Refinery. I am still awaiting his testimony, which is the
only one I am ready to accept.
Meanwhile, DF is now richer, more
popular with higher activsm rating than ever before. Surely, people will think
twice before touching a tigers tail
again!
Meanwhile Happy Christmas to DF & ALL men of goodwill, a rapidly
declining tribe! I pray that 2025 will be more GENUINLY hopeful
and replete with visible progress than
2024
In honour of DF,, I am organising an ‘arts
exhibition’ here and now, even though I am not an artist
“Find a great mentor, someone who has already been through the many challenges of being an entrepreneur..” -Jodi Levine
Entrepreneurship in Practice: Cases, Challenges and Lessons By IK, MUO PHD is now available on Amazon, since 14/5/21. Click here to view Available for order +2348033026625 | Delivery: Worldwide
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