This house is FALLING…. - Ik Muo, PhD.


 In 2003(21 years ago), I read Karl Maier’s alarmist book  about Nigeria (‘This house has fallen, 2000)’ in a series of 3 articles on  17th and 24th September and 1st October. I titled my review: This house has NOT fallen but….   I am led by the spirit to revisit that article and here it goes.  I apologise upfront that this is a LENGHTY intervention and as you read, remember that this was written in 2003.

What attracted me to IT was the cover, which vividly captured the perennial, chaotic and frustrating  traffic; the tormentor-in-chief of Lagosians. Then I fell in love with the title, THIS HOUSE HAS FALLEN. While I was still wondering which house fell, why it fell and why a book should be written about this particular one (since buildings collapse everyday across the country), I saw the bye-line; Nigeria in Crises. And then I noticed that it was written by Karl Maier, a white-man and published in Y2K. I was very eager to read the book; the title fascinated me and gave me the impression that the author was gifted in linguistic architecture (everything has its own architecture nowadays!). I also wanted to find out how much he knew about the Nigerian conundrum and  what  gave him the audacity to declare with an air of finality that this our beautiful, solid, house had crumbled; that what we were (and are still) seeing was imaginary. That was about a year ago (2002), in Enugu. But I could neither acquire nor read the book then. However, in the first week of August  this year(2003), I was at Abuja for an intellectual fellowship when I saw this book again. I acquired it, read it voraciously , and I was glad that I did. But before going into that, let me digress by commenting  that Abuja was so cool, so clean,  so beautiful ,and  so visitor-friendly that I did not feel like returning to Lagos. It made me wonder how people could lump Abuja, Lagos, Onitsha, and Igbo-Ukwu together as being in the same 3rd world or how they can quote the same life expectancy for people living in Abuja and Lagos. Of course, the person in Abuja should have a life expectancy that is almost double that of a Lagos resident!

 

Anyway, back to the failed house. Maier analysed the  recent series of not-so-cheery events in Nigeria  and linked them with some historical antecedents. He took a critical  look  at the Niger Delta wars, the complex minority crises especially in the Middle Belt, the OPC wars against everybody and everything, the Sharia question ,the manipulation of ethnic and religious sentiments for narrow  and selfish interests, the deafening cries of marginalisation and domination across the land, the disenchantment of the populace, the ruthlessness of our immediate past leaders(dealers?), and the unseriousness of the incoming ones and concluded that the center  had collapsed. In conducting his analyses, he told us things that we already knew; he told us some that were not much of common knowledge; he reminded us of some that we would rather not remember, helped us to know some parts of our country better, and through his interviews with some distinguished and estinguished Nigerians, made some statements  that have proved to be prophetic within such a short period. His account of events were mostly  authentic; some of the events he recounted were too bad to be true but they were true indeed while most of those factors the made him reach his end-time conclusion are still prevalent as I write this. 

 

We shall start by looking at some of Maier’s assertions that were true and common knowledge;  some that we know, but refuse to acknowledge; and some that were too bad to be true.  Saying that Nigeria was (is) under-developing since 2000, was worse than 1970 while some people in Akassa (Ogoni axis) preferred the days of Royal Niger Company to the Nigeria of 1999; that the Naira was an insignificant fraction of its former value and that the country wore the crown as the largest failed state  in Africa, were not outrageous statements. He reminded us that the mistake of 1914 was for the interest of the colonial predators, who laid the foundation for the present ethnic conflagrations across the land; that the Chougry  group and Abacha  had an anti-Nigerian predatory alliance; that the Ajaokuta Steel Coy. was a bottomless pit; that we had an over-bloated Airforce (10,000 airmen managing less than 20 aircrafts);that we were too eager to witness the soldiers exit that we readily ignored the unparalleled squandermania that preceded it (National Assembly@$65m;Eagle Square@ $30m,hand-over fireworks@$5m).

He also recounted that our fuel crises had its roots in mismanagement while fuel importation /the white-market would always be here because it benefited some officials. Those agonizing over 2003 elections may find little comfort from his report that it was worse in 1999 with ‘ballot box stuffing, phantom voting booths, impossibly high turnout…some districts recorded a turn out of 100%even though observers reported that voting had been light. In others voters turned up to find the polling stations closed and all the ballots marked’[p38].    The only difference was that while a delegate’s vote in 1999 primaries (Jos) was worth #150,000.00, in 2003, it was worth more than #1m.( Now it has been Dollarised). He restated the obvious that Nigerians demanded very little from their Governments; that the multidimensional war in Niger Delta resulted from how the Government and Oil companies treated the people, which at times included deliberate manipulation, and divide and rule tactics; how the Government had always collaborated with oil firms to quell riots and the widely shared belief of Deltans that the Federal Government had always failed to appreciate the true nature and scope of their problems.

 He also documented the collapse of secondary education after the Government takeover of schools as well as the monumental decay in the universities ‘where libraries are out of date, lecturers must engage in petty trading to feed their families and at the campus book store a thirty minute search for any recent publications on Nigerian history will turn up one or two volumes’; how we have moved from a society withprestigious universities ,a thriving economy and dreams of limitless  future’ to one oflost opportunities ,decaying moralities and chaos’ ;the manipulation of the quartet of ignorance, poverty,  illiteracy and ethnicity  by the elites; the perennial cries of domination by the people referred to as Southern Kaduna (even though they are located hundreds of kilometers away from Kaduna)and that the Middle-Belt crises originated from political domination and not religious differences; and how ethno-religious strife, were followed by one sided arrests.

 

Maier  also recounted the ruthless brutality of the police in handling idle civilians and the tendency of the police to take sides when sent on peace keeping operations; the increasing wave of churchmania in which prosperity theory  has overshadowed  the narrow gate paradigm and which was nurtured by the sudden collapse into the spiral of economic decline and military rule from the oil boom era, and the politics of population and revenue allocation. He documented how our elites and leaders had maintained the master-servant relationship initiated by the colonial masters and turned the country into a ‘dog-eat-dog world in which the elite robbed the country’s future generations to satisfy their present desires’  

 

Some of the issues he raised were too bad to be true or better not remembered. These included how Government officials under Abacha would load oil from Nigeria, move the ship few steps into the sea, make a u-turn and supply the same oil to the Government at a higher price as imported; the Ogoni crises, in particular, Government high-handedness, divide and rule tactics, the complicity of the oil companies; the controversial hanging of SaroWiwa through the instrumentality of a tribunal that worked from answer to  questions; the hypocrisy of Western Nations concerning democracy in Nigeria and how politicians encouraged and collaborated with soldiers on coup-mongering; the queer position of the Igbos who were neither allowed to exit the union nor allowed to stay in peace,   who were subjected to mass pauperization through the 1970 #20 only policy 

  

There were also some new disclosures and revelations. Maier disclosed that Ken Wiwa’s animosity towards the Igbos owed its origin to his experience as a student in Igboland; that palm oil also created problems for the people of Niger Delta just like petroleum is doing today; that there was a difference between kick-forward (taking money upfront from contractors ) and kick-back (receiving post execution gratification);that Ojukwu had contemplated  overrunning Equatorial Guinea to set up an Igbo Nation and that he was planning that agenda with an ordinary novelist; that there was a community in Nigeria whose traditional ruler wore only his birthday suite; that there were Igbos and there were Ibos.

 

He also recalled some prophetic statements which included Gen. Kastina’s  statement in 1996 that ‘coups succeed coups, we will never be at peace again’; Wiwa’s last statement that his ideas would outlive him and that by Mittee that the Ogoni crises would get worse since MOSOP was more disciplined than other forces that would emerge; another  by Alagoa that when ideas are denied natural expression, they become unnaturally explosive’; that of Afuwaj who reviewed the socio-political dynamics of northern minorities and concluded that the future was bleak. Then the mother of ALL prophecies: the perpetuation of the status quo with a civilian government lurching from crises to crises, the economy remaining gripped by stagnation and the legitimacy of the state in constant question. Nigeria would continue to bleed away its abundant natural and human resources; living standards would spiral ever downwards; sporadic religious and ethnic crises would claim more lives and the remnants of the professional class would follow millions of their country men and women to positions abroad’  

 

Maier passed his verdict 3 years ago (2000). I do not know whether he has been here since then or if he had been keeping tab of developments here. If he had done neither and decided  to visit today, he will see that the fuel queues have returned and that kerosene is now more expensive than champagne; that the anti-corruption agenda is a farce and that contrary to the President’s assurance, sacred cows abound (Salisu Buhari and Chris Uba’s cases are enough evidence);that nothing has come out of the much celebrated  Oputa Panel and that of all the leaders we have had, we are still only interested in the Abacha loot. He will notice that the Mustapha case is still on; that the Niger Delta crises is still on and is getting more complex; that our infrastructure-especially roads-have gone unimaginably bad; that fiscal indiscipline is still our bane and that after the 2003 elections, more thugs have graduated into criminals and are now showing us pepper. He will see that Igbos have now joined the thriving begging industry; that government has taken most of their businesses away (or at least made it difficult to do business);that Onitsha is still a bedlam of crimes, lawlessness, dirt  and bad roads; that Igbo politics is still as it was-everybody to himself-and that true to their promise, the Biafran beggars at Oji River are still there. He will of course notice that the Benin-Onitsha route is now an expressway and that the Telecom industry has witnessed an unprecedented revolution even though there are still many contentious issues.

 

But did all this justify his verdict that This House Has Fallen? Has the house fallen indeed; was/is it about to fall; or is it solid on the ground (is it there KAMPE)? Yes, we have witnessed rough times directly traceable to the leadership, a leadership that has been visionless, shortsighted and criminally parochial and selfish; a leadership that will stop at nothing to satisfy its personal and allied interests; a leadership that  preaches allegiance  to the national interest but will go on to deliberately and continuously  act in ways that are obviously inimical to these interests. There are also individuals and groups who want to corner more than their fair share of our abundant resources. The follower-ship that takes this nonsense sheepishly and is not ready to say through words and action that enough is enough is also guilty.

 

Sure, Nigeria has been in crises since 1960.These crises have been complex, complicated   and multidimensional. The house has had a combined, sustained and vicious attacks by  ethno-religious typhoons, socio-economic hurricanes and avoidable political earthquakes. The roof has been blown off and the paint has peeled off; the walls have very visible, wide cracks; the doors and windows are all broken; even the foundation has received some avoidable, significant, wounds. But the building is still there. Nigerians still wish to be Nigerians; they still believe that there is no place like home; they still have hope even though its supply is diminishing rapidly; they are still willing to live together; they are still willing to take their leaders by their largely valueless words, always searching for reasons to trust them and they are still willing to suffer their leaders’ incompetence, deceit and treachery. Furthermore, those who benefit from the unjust status quo and the hypocritical international community (whatever & whoever they are) do not want the house to crumble yet. Finally, the ALMIGHTY has been holding the house together, saving us from, and against, ourselves; pulling us back from the precipice on the various occasions when it would have been Nunc dimittis. As soon as these values start giving way, as soon as these variables vanish, as soon as these realities cease to exist, the house will fall! The house has not fallen but it is on a shaky foundation .What our leaders do or fail to do and how the followers respond to these actions and inactions will determine whether it will fall or stand. Unfortunately, our leaders are carrying on as if all is well; they do not appreciate the seriousness of the situation or the need for urgent action. This house has not fallen, but there is a serious cause for alarm.(end)

 

That was my verdict in 2003, 21 years ago; I was sure that there was still hope for this house. This is  February  2024 and I am no longer sure due to recent developments! I am afraid that this house is falling! The lawmaker representing Agatu State Constituency, of Benue State Mr. Godwin Edoh  has just reported that armed Fulani herdsmen captured and occupied at least 10 villages in his constituency and that security men who should  chase those baldheads out of there advised him  not to dare visit the place! The new government of Kogi State has just appointed an EFCC alumnus as its Chief of Saff, created the ‘Office of the Immediate Past Governor’(O-IPG) to be domiciled in the Government house, and directed the people to obey the IPG rather than himself! The Naira continues to be unequally yoked with the US Dollar, standing at N1508 as I write, (or 0.0011 of a Dolar). Even the Zimbabwean Dollar is HEALTHIER than our Naira!  The ZWD has moved from 16/11/15 2015, 1 ZWD=N.5500 on 16/11/15 to N2.799 on 29/1/26. All sorts of jokes are being cracked about the Dolar-Naira relationship; that it soars like the Eagles or that it rises every morning like the pennis. A mischieveous statistician has just informed us that  it would take four  whole years to save just $1 for anybody who started saving N1 daily! 



The fate of our Naira and the consequences

 This has thrown up to 90% of Nigerians under the  bus of poverty and our compassionate Minister of Power suggests the removal  electricity subsidies since we pay the least in West Africa. Of course, he will not speak about the corruption within the system. The government butchered the Naira by 98%(PWC) in pursuit of the elusive foreign investors but the indigenous ones are being suffocated while the existing foreign investors are exiting in droves. But when there is a casting down for some, there will also be a lifting up for others (Job22:29). This is the period when one ‘unknown widow’ organised a $6m   bash for the Part1 of her birthday in Grenada ( and deservedly received an exclusive  birthday greetings from the Federal Inland Revenue Service). That same period was  auspicious for Sanwolu to go in search of bilateral relations with a country that is 0.1% of Lagos in population and 0.17% in GDP. It is also the most appropriate period for my sister, Mrs Uju Ohanenye, (Minister of Women Affairs), to organize a birthday bash for her ‘darling husband, Double Chief Kennedy Ohanenye at Transcorp Hilton.

Within this period however, the audacious Fulani marauders had murdered about 50 people in Mangu despite the ‘coffee’ imposed on the community, while 30 women are still in detention in Lafia for having the audacity to peacefully protest against the  COURTing-out of their preferred  governor. Abuja has also become a kidnappers’ haven with 200 attacks, 87 deaths and 176  kidnappings in the past 8 months. On the roads of Ekiti, two Obas were murdered and a bus-load of pupils were kidnapped  ( 29/1/24)and the kidnappers asking for N100m  ransom- of course, with their phones despite our NIN and all that( the pupils have just been released with 15m,food and aphrodisiac drugs exchanging hands). The Olukoro of Koro in Kwara state, Oba Olusegun Aremu-Cole was also murdered in his palace and a ransom-tag of N100m placed on his wife. The kidnap map of Nigeria shows a scarry picture. A soldier could not visit home because the transport fare(N70k) alone was more than his salary for that month(N50k) but Nigeria just  bought  $1bn(N1.4trn) Viper attack helicopters from US  to be manned by underpaid soldiers. They forgot about the political will, motivation of  soldiers and deceleration of corruption in the military and defense ecosystem. Of course we had bought 10 Apache helicopters, without budgetary approval under PMB. As seen in Ogun State, policemen are now  involved in criminal entrepreneurship as Taiwo Kolawole, John Ogbe and Idowu Sunday  have just been  dismissed for armed robbery . As one Tony Barcanister bemoaned on 31/1/24, if you go to the farm, bandits will come after you, If your kids go to school, bandits will target them If you decide to keep them at home, bandits will come to your house If you run to your kings palace, terrorists will invade you there. Nobody and nowhere is safe as Nigeria is being parceled out by various Non State Actors.


        Kidnap Map of Nigeria,                family of 5 burnt in Mangu                   Oba Aremu- Cole

However, it is a time like this, that our dear BAT, Our Commander in Chief,  abandoned his terrorized flock and  an economy in a higgledy-piggledy state and embarked on a private visit to France, even while  his Nambian counterpart (Hage Geingob, who died as I was writing this) told his people that he was going to US  on medical visit to treat cancer. For the leader of a country, there is nothing private! Of course the security sitrep should not be a surprise to those who followed the most eminently qualified contestant in the last election. When asked how he would tackle security  he  directed El’Rufai to respond on his behalf at a time when half of Kaduna State was under virulent NSAs. And now, Rufai has gone underground.


          Criminal Policemen.           The stranded soldier            Mrs. Igba and her mother

The economy is also comatose. Our long awaited hope, Dangote Refinery  will import crude oil from the US because our NNPC has mortgaged our oil to rogue lenders.  As the exchange rate hovers around 1500/$, a man closer to 60 than to 50 has just closed shop in Lagos when he needed N1m to replace the stock he sold at profit for N700000 and an item he was buying N5500  apiece  just the other day, now goes for 40k. And I can tell you for free that staying in Nigeria is not on the cards for him. Probably, he would at this age join the deluge of 32462  Nigerians who applied for passports between 8-21 January, 2024 and are on their way out.   Unfortunately, the transport fare to UK, US et al has spiked by more than 50% in the past few weeks. That is why it is generally said that people are usually forced by circumstances to patronize white-garment Churches.  An importer who opened LC of $3m( N1.38 bn $=460) now needs N4.5bn to  straighten  his accounts  just as the exchange rates for imports have risen from N757 to N785- to N972 and now, to N1356 from November to date and from N1346 to N1424 between February2nd and 3rd!  How can a government  contain inflation with inflationary measures? No be juju be dat?   An industrialis has just told me that the money he used to import two containers of  raw materials ca no onger suffice for one container!!! And we are projecting economic growth plus more employment!!! Of course, Nigeria is so cool with renewed hope dividends  and that is why 33 of PMBs  43 ministers are  residing abroad with 21 of them in the UK alone, enjoying the fruits of their labour! Meanwhile the disgraced boss of  the Police Pensions Board has just been jailed 2 years for  N23bn fraud  with   an option of N250,000 fine just as one of the military chiefs is being accused of $70 haul and the dossier on the person who would investigate the matter is more than the  recently released FIB dossier.

 I was advised  not to ask why the past is always better than the present(Ecclessiastes,7:10) but I ignored the  advice and you see where  it has landed us( you and I). Read  the 2003 treatise again  and you see issues  mentioned in 2000 that have become messier  and more complicated like decay in the universities,  handout and stranglehold-Economy, Ajaokuta Steel Mill, Chougry Brothers, corruption in the military, fuel import magic, (s)elections and the cost per delegate(or dollargate). Now, has the house fallen? In 2003, I was sure of  my answer. Today, I am not so sure. I believe that this house is falling The house is falling gradually and  it may  fall for different people at different times while for some, this is the best time to be a Nigerian. For the man who needed N1m to buy goods he sold for N700k, this house has fallen. For the dead and the living at Mangu and Agatu, the house has fallen. For the Prof whose Salary nosedived from $2698 in 2011 to $286 in 2023( after 20 years as a Professor), his house has fallen. (My own has fallen by 80% in the last 10 years!); for the Prof who lobbied to be an assistant to a Horrible member at NASS, for those whose houses and shops were recently demolished in Lagos, Abuja, Enugu and Anambra, this house( and their houses) has fallen. For the importer who needs N4.5bn to settle a N1.3bn account, for  Christiana Igba and her mother who were kidnapped in Abuja, for Enugu Graduate Farmers  whose 35000 acres of farm land were razed by herdsmen in Nkanu LGA,  , for Mrs.  Chinyere Chukwuegbunam of Ozubulu who intended to sell 2 of her children so as to carter for the other 8,  our students abroad who are now begging to sustain themselves due to the anemic nature of the Naira, and a chicken farmer  at Umuga Aba, whose 800 birds  were washed away by flood during the last rainy season, this house has fallen.  And  the most SERIOUS of all: for the man who opened a shop for the fiancée who then went ahead to marry one of her customers and the woman whose husband impregnated the house girl of his side-chick-the house has fallen irretrievably!

         The BD girl, Tersugh,       Nomad Army,        PMBs men & women, N Ibn forone trip

However, for Bwala who cooled off with BAT in France and  those who were estacoded, for the trip, for   the beneficiaries of the Bazaar at the Ministry of Misery Affairs,   the first occupant of the Office of the Immediate Past Governor , those who are currently stealing( including the outstanding ladies), those who are on the queue to milk us,  the trade minister who budgeted N1bn for a trip to Geneva, Halima Shehu who mistakenly transferred N40bn into the wrong account, for Tersugh Aondona aka Attery Baba who weded 3 woman at ago in Jato-Aka in Kwando LGA on 31/1/24, those in the corruption value chain  in the purchase of the military helicopter this house stands GIDIGBAM; it is the best time to be Nigerians! In this category are also  those who are in government or friends to those in government who spend money as if it is going oit of fashion, the   ‘birthday girl’  and Government of Granada as well as countries and institutions warehousing the loots of our  covetous compatriots, would  however wish that Nigerian continues to be as it is.  For ‘idle contractors who become millionaires overnight by merely feeding fat on our common wealth, bootlickers, crumbpickers, opportunistic collaborators and friends of those in power… (Aare Amerijoye);. for those ‘billionaires’ whose debts to AMCON  are more than their purported  net worth( sure, they have negative net-worth), the consultant who got N3bn to verify the national social register in this anti-corruption Government, former governors  who are living  in state funded houses and driving state-purchased vehicles and who are in government but are receiving pensions; for serving and retired civil servants who own  a good% of houses in Abuja (I heard of on who owns a whole street), things cannot be better.  The same for Femi  Otedola  who has just  been appointed chairman of FBN holdings and for sponsors of Nomad Vigilante Services Ltd who have just been registered by CAC and the contractor who will fence  some graves  and renovate mosques with N1.4bn in Jigawa state.


     Ayodele, PO and Baba

My verdict?   In my quest for an answer, I tried to consult the prophets and political philosophers.  Primate Ayodele ( 8/2/23)had warned thatIf Tinubu wins( or rather  if he was declared president), Nigeria will sink; everything will be in shambles and NIGERIANS WILL suffer extraordinarily’. However,  7 months later, Baba  Adeboye declared that the Naira would bounce back and become stronger than the Dollar( 3/9/23). This week, he however changed his mind directing us to pray with all our strength. PO has warned that no country can progress if its politics is more profitable than its industries. In a country where those in government are richer than entrepreneires, they manufacture poverty’. Two uknown  Nigerians warned me that  ‘The increasing decline at an increasing rate in almost all spheres  in Nigeria’  due to the appointment of friends rather than technocrats with the likely consequence that we might read ‘Welcome to the GOLGOTHA of the economy’-and that A nation DIES when people are taught to hate their own history, their heritage, their culture and FINALLY, to hate each other. As I write this in the AM of Saturday, 3/2/24 I watched Inside Sources with Laolu Akande  where  the one and only genuine Aisha sadly declared that There is NO country anymore. As we are today, Nigeria is gone; what we have is the carcass while her ‘partner in crime’ Sowore concurred that we never had a nation and we are not going  in any direction. It is motion without movement and any movement is backwards. For Farooq Kperogi, the searing torment Nigerians are going through is so dire, so unbearably extreme and unexampled in its rawness… the lower classes are sinking deeper in soul-depressing depths of poverty, despair and hopelessness and the lower and middle classes are now united by a common sensation of emptiness, agony and anxiety for the future. Everyday is worse, less hopeful and more precarious than the previous day and eve n hope, the last thing that dies in humans ,is desperately going into the death spiral.( Tinubu, Nigeria is sinking & streets full of tears). Casmir Igbokwe has just bemoaned that Nigeria is in a freefall.  I have also just heard about protests in Kano and Mina  over the  high cost of living, and that 55  members of a bridal train have just been kidnapped in Kastina while  Nigeria has just been ranked at 109 over 125 in the global hunger index


 The Nasarawa women                          Protests in Kano and Minna

It is obvious that the house is falling but it will NOT likely collapse the same time for everybody. For some, it has already collapsed; for some the collapse  is looming  but at all times, there are some people who are always having the best of times. Nigerians are now forced to rely on  stanza of the National Pledge: So help me God. The economy, the security, the governance and even the Government, the int’l respect and prestige and Socio-economic indicators. have all collapsed.


The house is FALLING

 So, it is difficult for me to answer the question of whether  this house has fallen; I don’t know again but I believe that the house is FALLING!  However, it appears   that I have asked the wrong question. I think that like relationship with Christ, this question has to be personal with everybody asking for himself: Has this house collapsed for me or has my corner of the house collapsed:  So, has your own house  or your corner of this house fallen ?Is it about to fall? Is it as solid as the rock of Gibraltar???

·       Apologies for the long read! The next will not be up to half of this

 

Ik Muo, PhD. FCIB. Department of Business Administration, OOU, Ago-Iwoye. 08033026624

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