The C-Curve: Rising, flattening or dipping? Oshiomhole; A self-inflicted Injury- Ik Muo, PhD.

 

Early in August, The Nigerian Center for Disease Control warned that the declining number of  fresh cases did not evidence the much awaited curve-flattening. It also lamented the woeful number of tests as well as the reluctance of states to submit their coro statistics. However, last week, (18/9/20), the boss of PTF-Coro, himself a Boss, declared jubilantly that ‘tremendous progress has been made and we are beginning to notice that the curve is flattening’ though he went ahead to advise vigilant and cautious optimism. The President of Nigerian Medical Association,  Prof Ujah  had asked on behalf of all of us: where is the evidence? On Monday, 21/9/20, NCDC  repeated its warning that lower cases was not a sign  of Coro abatement and that we should avoid premature celebrations.  There are also reports that only Lagos, Ogun, Kano and FCT are doing serious testing while on  21/9/20, only 11 states filed their coro-statistics (with Enugu & Gombe on top). I don’t want to say that they are singing on discordant tunes but it appears that we have started behaving like those in curve-flattened environment. Lagos State, the unchallenged epicenter of the pandemic has opened up everything and everywhere: full religious worship,   open bars, cinemas, schools  et al. Other states have also followed suit. At the individual level, we have also forgotten about the new normal (masking, hand washing and distance (so soon!). We all saw what happened at the burial of the Emir of Zaria few days ago.  Schools have reopened and while students keep the distances within the classrooms, they forget it thereafter, even within the school compound. So how does the weekly Coro-risk assessment,

Students outside the classrooms;… Burial of Emir of Zaria: Distancing in PRACTICE

(assuming the schools can do that) and the establishment of health teams, take care of off-site anti-coro-behaviours and attitudes?  Government has also warned that 10% of positive cases are under 19 (students age), and that a  second lockdown might well be imposed if students and the general public did not take adequate precautions

As at 21/9/20, Nigeria has conducted just 480000 tests out of a population of ‘about’ 200m. Statistically, a sample of 30 is said to be significant but in all sincerity, and keeping ‘mathemagics’ aside, can a test of less than 500000(.25%) help us affirm the situation of things?  While the quants bother about this, let us see the sitrep across the globe, where, oga-coro is powering on ferociously, with a total figure of 30.3m as at 21/9/20. It gets more interesting when we note that while it took 38 days to move from 5m- 10m,(131579 daily) it took just 18 days to jump from 25m to 30m( 277777daily)! The seven-day rolling average of new cases is about 90000 in Asia, 60000 in Latin America and the Caribbean and 30000 in North America and about 10,000 in Africa.  America now has 6.8m cases, with more than 200000 deaths. Even though God has been very kind to us in this regard, this scenario does not show any course for celebration.

UK is now facing a second wave of Coro and has introduced the carrot and stick containment model. It has upgraded its coro-alert to Level 4 (infections high or rising exponentially), introduced a localized lockdown (affecting about 14m people), reduced crowds at weddings to 15and imposed serious punishment, including  £10000 fine for quarantine violations and stay-at-home allowance of £500 for the poor who cannot work from home during the 2 week period.

They have also suspended the planned return of fans to the sports arena, due to have commenced in October. In France, new cases surpassed 10000 daily (highest since the Coro-invasion) and strict restrictions have been imposed on outdoor events, especially in the red zones. In Madrid, where 33% of all cases emanated from, new measures limiting social gatherings to no more than 6 and localized lockdown for risky neighbourhood, for 14 days started on Monday (21/9/20). 

You can trust those people; they started protesting on 20/9/20, a day before the measures came into force. Israel imposed second National Lockdown on Friday(18/9) following the red flag raised by the health authorities. So, what is the status of this mysterious curve in Nigeria: rising, flattening or dipping? You can make up your mind from this brief review. But if it is rising all over the world, it is unrealistic to expect that it will flatten in Nigeria because we are a part of this interconnected world, when even chicken imported from Brazil tested positive in China! And remember, international flights have resumed!

There are other interesting Coro developments. A new study is suggesting that Coro is ultimately likely to become a seasonal ailment like influenza. Consumers are also rapaciously gulping  an  industrial bleach (chlorine dioxide solution) on the mistaken belief that it cures Coro and that is even after Archbishop Mark Grenon and his son, Joseph, have been arrested in Colombia for selling the bleach-cure. About 3500 people in Northern China have  contracted brucellosis,  after a leak from a state-owned biopharmaceutical plant.

 

The contentious bleach

 So, Coro already has a successor… also from China! Still on criminal entrepreneurship, Lola ( aged 22), a Houstonian, has just been arraigned for swindling the state  Paycheck Protection Program of $2m. I thought these people have everything under control. The Plateau Research Committee on COVID-19, has declared that it has become the first to successfully  develop a herbal cure for the disease. I hope they took note of what happened to Abalaka… and to the Madagascar Cure. On Palliatives, the Coalition Against COVID-19, CACOVID, has begun distributing palliatives to1.7m households across Nigeria. In South-Africa, an over-zealous security official has shot and killed a citizen for failure to wear facemask a shopping complex in Mogwadi, Limpopo, on Thursday, September 17.

In a lighter and sporty mood, Ripdorf, a  German football team lost 37-0 to their local rivals after fielding only seven players who socially distanced throughout the game. Their request to postpone the game because their opponents had been in contact with a coronised player was rejected. They would have abandoned the match but they did not want to pay a fine of  €200 (£182).   Ripdorf players avoided contacts with their opponets throughout the game and thus the opponents kept scoring until they got tired. Please, we should not be tired because Coro is NOT yet tired. Have a Covid-free weekend

 Othyer Matters:Oshiomhole; A  Self-inflicted Injury!

The self-acclaimed political lion of Edo-land,Adams Oshiomole, has been rubbished by a ‘political lizard’, who has just stripped him politically naked. I saw it coming!  On 9/7/20, I wrote inter alia: How can Oshiomhole turn around to play the godfather or even dream of doing so? He who crowned himself the nemesis of godfathers, He who swore the step on toes and chop off those toes in the larger public interest.; who promised ‘NEVER to distract or interfere with whoever governs afterwards’! Anyway, it is not yet over but Oshiomhole has finished himself.  That is  what happens when ordinary people start playing god.. when people wear the perquisites of office in their foreheads ( rather than behind)such that life becomes meaningless when it falls off. As for the September Election, I can only prophesy that one party must win. There is no way two of the can win!. May be then, I will make available my $1.8m champaign for the final celebration. And for Obaseki, this is just the end of the beginning and he should learn from the travails of his master ( Other Matters: Like Naboth, like Obaseki; well, not exactly! BusinessDay,9/7/20)

A lot has been said about the social and political decimation of Oshiomhole and they are all in the market square. Some are serious socio-political analysis. Some are seriously jocular.   But two comments from APCians, (who would migrate to PDP APGA, YPP tomorrow) are noteworthy . A former publicist of nPDP, Mr Ezeh blamed the defeat of APC on Adams ‘unpleasant carriage, incoherent disposition,, sheer administrative incompetence, gross leadership malady…’ The one and only Rochas said that It is not only PDP members that voted for Obaseki even APC members also voted for him. EDO people did not vote for APC or PDP,they voted against injustice’ . That means, Adams is the purveyor of that injustice. And then, the bomb from  APC, Edo State, which blamed their defeat on the ‘needless and avoidable  crises foisted on the party by a selfish, insensitive, arrogant and irresponsible leadership!!! It is one of the ironies of Nigerian strange political reality  that while Eze-Iyamu ( who was canonized by Adams last in July)lost the election, all the poisonous jabs barbs and darts are being thrown at Oshiomhole. Another irony is that some Chattered mischief-makers( count me out!) have advised Obaseki to wait for the veto-vote of the supreme court before celebrating!

 Oshiomhole’s claim to political lionship is laughable. As an APC Chair, he was sent parking by unknown ward executives and an ordinary Deputy National Secretary. As a political elder, he was sacked by a political lizard whom he made a governor the other day ( how could he have made somebody governor in a democracy?). I don’t know whether he will rise again from the ashes of this  social and political humiliation. But if he does, I will advise him to chew his wards at least thrice before uttering them. Obaseki didn’t have must to do during this election. He just repeated all the things Adams said in his favour and those he said against Iyamu and the godfathers. He should also be warry of the arrogance and  nothing-mega tendencies that come with power

 In Igboland, the  masquerade, the spirit-being that visit the humans under special circumstances, is a very SERIOUS cultural institution. It is abominable for anybody to desecrate a masquerade. However, it is unheard of for the person who carries the masquerade’s pouch  (his nwa-dibia(native doctor)) to desecrate the masquerade. That is what Adams, nwa Oshiomhole has just done. He attempted to destroy a masquerade which he institutionalized. And he went home to dance and celebrate that odious act. That is why the gods were and are against him.

 I had predicted that  Obaseki would not end like Naboth and that was why I add well, not exactly!, when I compared him with Naboth).You see, I am a prophet and those Obaseki followers should advise him to  come and settle me for prophesying positively on his ‘head’ 

Before Oshiomhole was the one dancing. Today, Obaseki is the one dancing. I will present him with that champaign Taste of Diamonds, which    cost $1.8, if fawning protocol officers will give me access to him. I will then remind him of what I told him in July: And for Obaseki, this is just the end of the beginning and he should learn from the travails of his master. I Have spoken.

- Ik Muo, PhD. Department of Business Administration, OOU, Ago-Iwoye. 08033026625