When
I first discussed the issue of Nigeria’s obsession with Chinese loans (Nigeria+
China; Till debts do us part), we consulted the legendary Shakespeare who had
advised: neither a lender nor a borrower be (Julius Caesar). Today, I am still
in the Shakespearean mood and once more, I take recourse to the sage who
declared years ago ‘ love is blind and lovers do not see the pretty follies
that they themselves commit’( Merchant of Venice) These lovers
do FOOLISH things but do not see them as foolish because they are
entangled by emotional cobwebs. However, the onlookers see the follies. Surely, there is an element of blindness in
this our love affair with China or else, we should not have embraced the
conditions which the Tanzanian President, Mr.
Magfuli has forcefully argued ‘can only be accepted by MAD people’,
since it amounted to selling the country to China. This Nigeria-Chinese debt-driven
love affair is not even blind. China knows what it is doing and Nigeria is just
acting as the blind partner; the individuals involved in this debt-love affair
are not actually blind; they also know what they are doing. However, the
onlookers see the REAL picture and know the truth.
So,
when IMF recently said that our debts are below the African average, a narrative
vigorously marketed by our Debt Management Office, I shuddered. It is like an Engineer telling the house
owner: the walls are cracking, some parts of the decking are giving way but at
least, the pillars are still standing.
In connection with this, I consulted Fela in the spirit and he gave me a
one-sentence answer: ‘Teasher, don’t teash me nonsense’. Yes, debt to GDP ratio is an outrageous high
of 234% in Japan, 181% in Greece and projected to soon hit 80% in Ghana but you
can only compare apples with apples. Our
people also say that the sheep that wants to grow horns should develop a thick
skull and that one has to know the capabilities of his brethren before asking
them for financial bailout. In effect, you don’t do things because others are doing;
you do what you can do!
And
when Bismarck Rewane said that we have revenue problem, not debt problem, (another
emergent government narrative) I also wondered. What about the sinful opulence,
criminal pensions and 1001 SAs appointed by the political class, opaque
security votes, over bloated contracts, criminal cost of governance et al. I believe that surely, we have expenditure
problems and when we manage the expenditures, the revenue side is enhanced
We
ended the earlier treatise (Till debt do us part) with a barrage of questions,
which boiled down to one: Why are Chinese loans so attractive for China and for
African governments? I have gone into my darkroom (not cold-room please!) and
have found some of the reasons. It is
because of the high ease of looting index! Chinese government do not ask many
questions and Nigerian/African borrowers can jolly well do what they want with
the loans. That is why we are dutifully servicing the Abuja CCTV loan, even
when there is nothing to show for it. We also have low volatility (citizens activism)
index Nigerians love life and they are not willing to ask serious questions or
risk their lives, except when our manipulative politicians mobilize us with N500
apiece. There is also high Elite Acquisitive
Index. So, any deal, from which we can ACQUIRE more and more, goes. There is a high Elite Acquiescence Index,
such that while some elites and rabidly acquisitive, the other elites look the
other way in acquiescence. We have a low legal and justice capability index because
when busybodies dare ask questions in court (Like Prof Awojobi of blessed
memory), the judges will readily agree with the lawyers that the matters are
not justiciable, that it is an abuse of court process and that the appellant
lacks locus standi. We also have low diligent negotiation index; we lack the
capability to strategically analyses these deals to know those that are ideal
and those that are baits. The Case of
I& PD and even the case of Mambila project are glaring examples. At times,
the other indexes mentioned above undermines this particular index, when the
best are deliberately sidelined or when the negotiator deliberately sells out.
Do not ask me the econometric foundations of these indexes but for sure, they
are the reasons why Chinese loans have become increasingly addictive for
Nigeria and African Countries.
Meanwhile,
the debt appetite of the Buhari-APC government is alarmingly atrocious. Our
total debt stock for September 2019 is N26.215trn while debt service is
expected to gulp N2.140 trn in our 2020 budget, in which only N2.031trn
projected for capital expenditure. More loans are on the drawing board and the
NASS has just approved further $30bn loan.
Pundits posit that what we have borrowed in the last 3 years is more
than what we have borrowed in the past 30 years. This is bad enough but the
argument that there is no cause for alarm in Government quarters and among the
informed opinions, except lone voices like that of Professor Tella, is quite
unfortunate.
Other
matters: Amotekun; The travails of a weird federation
The
Amotekun affair has brought to the fore, once more, the challenges of the weird
federation that we practice in Nigeria.
During the 3rd Goddy Jidenma Lecture, Professor Aliagwu declared without
any equivocation, that there is nothing like true federalism because the nature
and scope of federalism depends on the peculiar circumstances of its practitioners.
( See Ik Muo; Professor Elaigwu, Federalism & Contingency Theory.
BusinessDay, 19/11/13). However, one fact remains sacrosanct as far as
federalism is concerned: decentralization is fundamental to its theory and
practice. However, the Nigerian version of federalism is built upon absolute
centralization, to the extent that even the only things our governors can
freely do, paying salaries and squandering of common wealth, depend on the
goodwill of the federal government. They are able to pay salaries because they
collect monthly ‘allawees’ from Abuja; they are able to steal their states dry
because the institutions at Abuja look the other way while they do so!
The
South-West States, jointly established the Amotekun Security Network and
immediately after its launch, the federal government criminalized the outfit by
declaring it illegal. While the Amotekun debate rages and while even me as a
spirit and a prophet, cannot foresee where it will end, two key issues are
pertinent: equity and our practice of federalism. The issue of equity rests on
the fact that there are in existence, several para-military and nonfederal
institutions across the country as at today. For instance, the Amotekun Affair
happened two weeks after the Hisba Police in Zamfara had the temerity to arrest
a serving police officer for spending his time and money the way he deemed fit.
Around
the same time, the Jigawa Hisba announced how it arrested 24 gays, 12 rapists,
200 prostitutes, and 20 fornicators, among others in 2019. The Civilian JTF has grown in fame and fortune
that the Nigerian Soldier has even absorbed a good number of them. (I wonder
whether that was a part of its normal recruitment programmes and how other
states were represented in the federal
character template). Of course, Lagos state has its KAI brigade, LATSMA and
Neighborhood Safety Corps.
Across
the states, and even across the local governments, there are several uniformed
folks, whose job mostly is to make life difficult for ‘we the people’. In any
case, OPC has been operational across the West. So, why is Amotekun different?
Is it the name, the timing, the scope or the
sponsors? On
the issue of federalism, why shouldn’t the federating units pursue issues of
local interest? Kano state spends
humongous sums in organizing weddings for its citizens;
Bauchi Government
spends huge sums on burying its citizens (instead of letting the dead to bury
the dead); Lagos, spends huge sums on beautification and constructing motor-parks that the operators do not
understand how to use, Jigawa is constructing mosques across the state( 95 for
a start) while Anambra spends on Christmas Trees and allied matters. Thus, if states in the north have Hisba
police to hound prostitutes, alcohol merchants and their clients, Governments
in the South West should also be able to establish Amotekun to tackle kidnappers
and cows whose best grazing areas are people’s farmlands. This is in tandem
with the practice of federalism
By the way, while there are many voices for
and against Amotekun, the reaction of Miyetti Allah, is quite interesting. They
had vowed that Amotekun must not be allowed to be and argued that it would rob
the South West of the presidency come 2023.
So, the Miyetti Allah has become a part of the
Federal Government and though we are supposed to be in a democracy, the
organization has the capacity to decide who gets the presidency. The Oni of Ife and the white haired one (Prof
Soyinka) have also reacted, asking their people to defend their ancestral land
as the FG has failed to protect them. Okwadike Ezeife described it as a model
worthy of emulation. Despite the cacophony of voices on the Amotekun affair,
people are also surprised at the SILENCE of Bola Tinubu, telling him that in
this case SILENCE is not golden. So, some people speak and they are in
‘trouble’; some people keep silent and they are also in ‘trouble’.
Meanwhile,
in this hi-tech era, when wars are fought with deadly scientific precision, the
picture of the ‘IG of Amotekun forces’ circulating all over the place is quite
interesting.
Ik Muo, PhD. Department of Business
Administration, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye
muoigbo@yahoo.com, muo.ik@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng, 08033026625
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