My prophecy for year 2020 - Ik Muo, PhD.

Some readers of this treatise will begin by asking: when did Ik become a prophet? But this does not worry me; after all, they asked this same question of the great Saul when they exclaimed: Is Saul also among the prophets (1 Samuel,10:11).  However, I have some solid explanations for them and others like them who do not recognize or who underrate my prophet credentials. Firstly, as a child of God, I am a king, prophet and priest. Secondly, I am a spirit (Muo) and all spirits see in the present and in the future. Thirdly, all those prophets who had made several prophetic declarations in and about Nigeria, including those who prophesied that PMB would not win the last elections, that the N would equal the $, that a dictator could easily become a democrat, (as if a leopard would change its spots) were and are mostly self-appointed or self-anointed. So, what is wrong if I anointed myself? Finally, in Nigeria where everything holds, when one does not require a certificate to become anything, I don’t require any certification to become a prophet! QED!! QEF!!!

Now to the serious business of the day.  As we move increasingly towards the next level in the year 2020, some politicians would die, others will decamp, the rest would continue to mutilate their constituency projects, some will still SLEEP during plenary sessions and many will be disappointed in their political quests.

The various DISCOs will continue to deliver more darkness than light; they will continue to brazenly STEAL from their customers and the spirit of uncertainty in the power circuit (NERC, TCN, DISCOs and GENCOs) will continue to be more potent.  Traffic gridlock within Lagos, towards Lagos and on the Lagos-Onitsha route, will be more pronounced, especially as the operatives’ pockets would be empty after the yuletide ‘spend to die’ season. Rainy season would start around May nationwide but will start in January in Lagos; the weather will become hotter and hard to predict and the number of foreign okada riders in Lagos will continue to increase in geometric proportions, just as area-boys will become more daring.  The war against corruption will continue to be more motion and little movement because efforts are not being made to plug the gaping holes from which our public funds are siphoned. Trump will also continue to ‘trumpeteer’, always doing the unimaginable and confusing the American system and institutions.

Having finished with the above earth-shaking prophecies, of which I am 101% certain, let me then go to other minor matters. In 2017, the APC government, on its own accord and in an effort to concretise its vague change agenda, designed the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan as a strategic medium-term economic management framework.  In terms of SMART objectives, ERGP promised a real GDP growth of 4.62% on the average, reaching 7%; oil production  to 2.5mbpd; employment reduction to 11.23, through the creation of 3.7m jobs annually, inflation at 9.9% and among others, become a net exporter of agricultural and refined petroleum products, all by 2020

A comparison of the ERGP projections with current realities and figures for 2020 budget shows that the   plan performed far below expectations. Growth in the 3^rd quarter of 2019 was 1.94%, indicating that the GDP needs to grow by at least 7% so as to meet the ERGP target. However, even the government has reversed its 2020 growth projections to 2.93%, indicating that it has given up on its earlier expectations of 7%. Unemployment is 23.1% for 2019 while the Minister of Labour had prophesied that it would hit 33% by 2020. Oil production is projected at 2.18MBPD for 2020 as against the ERGP figure of 2.5MBPD and current production of 1.9mbpd in Q1’19. Total debts stood at N24.9trn as at March, 2019 against  the ERGP figure of N20trn  and the hope of being a net exporter of petroleum products remains a pipe dream while  a demand-supply gap of 2,2m tones still exists in the rice market, despite CBN interventions which is one of the reasons the price of rice has soared almost 100% since the recent border closure. So, what is my prophetic message to Nigerians as regards the economy? Now Your Suffering Continues and the most painful aspect is that the government will continue to tell us that we are already in an economic Eldorado!

I am not a Chike Obi but I know that solve an equation, one has to manipulate both sides. I am not a JK Randle but I also know that every accounting entry involves debit and credit, or else, I will not balance. In the recent past the FGN has been doing everything to upturn these two self-evident truths by hammering exclusively on the revenue side of the expenditure-revenue equation. So, based on the strange theory that Nigeria has a ‘revenue problem’, the government has taken some weird unorthodox steps to increase revenue. These include border closure, increase in VAT, introduction of all sorts of taxation and the strange practice in which Customs officials who cleared goods at the boarder or allowed them to slip through the boarders would waylay people on the roads and invade shops and markets, to seize these same goods. Nobody in the customs service has been queried as to how the goods came in in the first instance (after all, they queried Fowler of FIRS). Certainly, nobody has done everything to reduce the outlandish costs of running this strange structure called a centralized federation (security votes, out of station allowances, cost of local and foreign travels, cutleries and costs of repairs and maintenance). Surely, as long as my name remains Prophet Ik Muo, these strange revenue raising tactics while continue while sinful ostentatiousness by those in government will continue in 2020.

2020 is also a year of politicians and politicking. In states like Anambra and Edo states, where elections are scheduled, government and governance will be surrendered to the alter of electioneering. Even the government at the center will forget that it has WON the elections and continue on the campaign mode of making promises, defending the indefensible and making strange comments like the ‘5% votes’ declaration. The degree of inclusiveness in our appointments will continue to plummet and, in these states, scheduled for elections, newer versions of the Kogi model will be implemented. As we have just come out of the holy season of Christmas, and as politicking is still in the air, I want to leave us with these Beatitudes of Politicians  as authored by Cardinal Van Thuan: Blessed are the politician with a lofty sense and deep understanding of his role; who personally exemplifies credibility; who works for the common good, who remains consistent, who works for unity and to accomplish radical change, who is capable of listening and who is without fear. For Nigerian Politicians in particular, blessed be those who stay faithful to his ideology and his party, irrespective of whether the party has just won or lost an election.

 I wish all men of good will, a fruitful 2020. I also thank those who felicitated with me on my birthday on 1/1/20 and particularly the Ministry of Internal affairs who made it a public holiday so that those who failed to show-face will not have any alibi!

·         I apologise for my inability to maintain this column in the past two weeks. It was because, circumstances ‘ko-warrant’!

Ik Muo, PhD. Department of Business Administration, OOU, Ago-Iwoye; 08033026625