Nigeria + China: Till Debts Do Us Part! And…Tears for Mrs Abuh - Ik Muo, PhD.

China became independent in 1949, 11 years before Nigeria and for a while, both countries had a lot in common: they belonged to the league of  underdeveloped countries, they housed the poorest of the poor,  were regional powers both in size and might, generally classified as economically backwards. But even though both were underdeveloped, Nigeria’s economy was more buoyant than that of China and as at 1964, the Per Capita Income(PCI) for China was $84.4  while it was $113 for Nigeria. October 1 also happens to be the independence day of both countries. That was purely coincidental. Over the years however, both countries have ‘parted ways’ as they drifted apart, positively for China and unfortunately, negatively for Nigeria. The gap has so widened  as those things that held them together have all but vanished. China is now a global power while Nigeria, which was the force behind African liberation, is now begging Chad et al to liberate it from the clutches of Bokoharam et al.

Economically,  China, with a PCI of $10,000 gets worried whenever its growth rate goes towards 10 % while Nigeria, with a PCI of $2033 is celebrating a mythical growth rate of 2%. Nigeria is now the poverty capital of the world with 47% of its population living in poverty , (a number more than the poor in China & India), while the % in Chana is just 0.2%. Because   birds of the same feather flock together and China now ‘flocks’ with its fellow big-men, Nigeria, struggling on all dimensions is ‘flocking’ with its fellow poor and distressed countries.

However, they still have  October 1 as a rallying pointy and it appears that the two countries under their present leaderships, have   resolved to go beyond the mere coincidence of October 1 to  a relationship as deep as the Catholic Marriage, a covenantal relationship. All legally binding relationships are contractual in nature and all or any of the parties can say  easily ‘I no do again’! The only exception is the Catholic  marriage, which lasts ‘till death do us part’.  That is why it is a covenant, not a contract. This conditionality ought to apply all Christian marriages but this has become doubtful following the spate of divorces (at times multiple) by several self-acclaimed men of God!  And while  the marriage covenant is a union of equals and ‘till death do us part’ The China-Nigeria marriage is a union of unequal’s and it is Till DEBTS Do Us Part!

As Laertes was embarking on a trip to Paris, his father, Polonius   warned him thus “Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend’.  In effect, he warned his son against lending to or borrowing, from a friend because he would most likely lose both the money and the friend (Julius Caesar, Hamlet). However, despite this well-reasoned injunction, Nations, organisations and individuals  still continue to borrow. The  key issue in lending, beyond the bankers’ 3Cs( Character, Collateral and Competence) is that the loan be self-liquidating. Nigeria was battling with a suffocating  debt burden until the Obasanjo Government achieved the miraculous feat of debt write-off. Debts have however returned to the front-burner of economic discourse in Nigeria. It has moved from N12.6 trn in December 2015 to N25trn+ in June 2019( more than 100%) in June 2019; the % of our GDP that goes to debt servicing is more than 25%  and greater than our capital expenditure.

China, with a debt-hold of $2.5bn  on Nigeria, is our highest country-creditor.

But while national debt has become a key issue of concern for Nigerians, our government is not  worried, as it continuously assures us: ‘no cause for alarm’, comparing our debt records with other debt-harassed countries  . The government is behaving like that pupil who was harassed by his father for  coming 51^st in a class of 53 and he retorted; ‘at least I did better than 2 others and they are also peoples’ children!.

All this is happening as the IMF just warned that 40% of African countries are in debt crises; when some countries have had their critical assets seized by China and when Chinese loans are becoming more toxic and addictive and encourage   acute ‘dependency using opaque contracts, predatory loan practices, and corrupt deals that mire nations in debt and undercut their sovereignty, denying them their long-term, self-sustaining growth’’. I also recall than in January this year, the CBN had warned the government  about external borrowing even though I don’t know its stand on the current ballooning of our debt stock.

Why do Chinese loans hold such attraction to us and why are they  so suspiciously generous with these loans even when repayment capability is being gradually impaired?  What is the impact of these and other loans on our long-term economic growth and what do we do to escape the looming debt trap. Are we under China-debt stranglehold peonage or are people just crying wolves? What is Chinese agenda, hidden or open? Questions, questions and more questions… Later.

Other matters: Kogi;Tears for Mrs Salome Abuh et al

The national elections are almost over with the incisive  judgment on Atiku’s appeal, which was delivered with automatic alacrity within 24 hours of the appointment of new supreme court justices. I decided not to make any direct political commentaries after my analysis of the last presidential elections.  But now that the supreme court has ruled, I believe that the elections are over apart from  a few cases hanging here and there. I will get back to these election-related  matters but certain things cannot wait and one of them is the superlative performance of our security forces during the Kogi elections as indicated by the gruesome roasting of Mrs Abuh by  a crowd bloodthirsty celebratory thugs.  The woman who had earlier been battered was recuperating when the jubilant crowd set her house on fire, ensured that  she did not escape and waited till the house was completely razed. 

Just imagine how long this deadly process would have lasted! Many others were also sacrificed on the altar of inordinate quest for political control. The police had deployed 35000 personnel for Kogi, including Police Mobile Force, Special Protection Unit and Counter-terrorism Unit and other security outfits. I learnt that customs officers were included, probably to ensure that nobody was compromising voters with foreign rice.  Where were these security men, who had been doing a ‘show of force’ around town, when this gruesome act was being perpetrated? Sadly, our dear IGP told us that this intimidating, force supported by helicopters and attack dogs was overpowered by “fake policemen’. How could he openly say that? Anyway, during the Rivers governorship elections, there were fake APCs, fake police dogs and fake police guns!  Yes, PMB had ordered an investigation. So, without a presidential order, the police were not planning to do anything?  I was not in Kogi but I believe the testimony of Rev. Fr Emehel Executive Director, Justice and Peace Development Initiative, JDPC, Catholic Diocese of Sokoto, who said that ‘The election fell short of everything an election should stand for and should be considered an outright war. The battle was not won with the ballot papers but by bullets. Bullets exchanged for ballots in many places’

With security men like those assigned to Kogi (and even Bayelsa), we don’t need no security. However, with the sterling performance of thugs, starting with the show of shame at Okota, I move and it is hereby moved that our police force be disbanded and a new one constituted, made up of tested and trusted THUGS. Since it takes a thief to catch a thief and since the thugs have always overwhelmed the security forces, we cannot have any better security outfit. The new force, by whatever name, should be headed by the Thug-in-chief from Lagos!

Ik Muo, PhD. Department of Business Administration, OOU, Ago-Iwoye. 08033026625